Displacement

The concern is expressed at the apparent dearth of serious consideration given to the scale, globality, political, social, economic and environmental impacts of coming climate-induced migration. Whatever greenhouse gas emissions trajectory proves to eventuate, thermo-dynamic inertia within the atmospheric-ocean system will now inevitably lock-in continuing and pressing climatic change impacts far beyond the end of this century, and probably well beyond the next. Examples are presented of climate-change-induced migration for which it would be prudent to initiate due care and planning immediately. Most of these impacts are foreseeable and semi-quantitatively determinate. There is uncertainty regarding the time-frame but high confidence in the ultimate reality.

Multi-faceted problems of this migration will occur on an unparalleled scale, and will happen concurrently with competing stresses such as continued population growth and depleting land-availability, coastal inundation and salinization, climate-driven economic crisis, water resource depletion, habitat loss, loss of biodiversity, and ‘kick-in’ of other positive climate feedback mechanisms.

There is no human precedent for dealing with human migration in the hundreds of millions. Historically, seemingly unstoppable wars have been waged over much more modest numbers of migrants. Hence, by analogy, the potential for future military and quasi-military conflict with desperate migrants seems virtually certain to escalate dramatically. Military authorities are becoming increasingly aware of this scenario, but responses seem to have been entirely negative and defensive, (‘build a wall’, ‘stop the boats’, nationalist xenophobia) rather than positive, based upon compassionate and proactive international planning. The UN struggles to maintain adequate refugee camps, whereas ‘climate refugees are neither recognized nor catered for. Hence, what to do with huge numbers of climate-migrants is an out of sight, out of mind problem, both nationally and internationally. It is subject to “the tragedy of the commons” in which national societies or ethnic identities maximize selfish resource usage at the expense of others, on the grounds that, if they take a more altruistic position, they will automatically pay a relative economic penalty. There is no sign of any government or UN agency taking a sufficiently positive altruistic stand on large- scale migration, even though to ignore it is tantamount to inviting conflict. Therefore, at least for now, the impetus for research, awareness-raising, and radical planning at local, national and international levels, falls by default to NGOs and Academia.